On March 14, Mark Carney was officially sworn in as Canada’s new Prime Minister, bringing with him a series of policy changes that have sparked widespread discussion. Many Canadians are wondering: Can Carney’s policies steer the country back on track?

This article aims to break down his policy framework, analyze the opposition’s views, and examine what crucial aspects might be missing—especially regarding Canada’s economic future and the real estate market.

1. Carney’s Policy Framework: What Has He Announced?

Although Carney’s government has yet to publish a formal policy document, we’ve compiled a list based on his recent speeches. His 11 key policies outline a mix of economic, taxation, and trade reforms:

1. Abolishing the Carbon Tax for Consumers – However, instead of eliminating it entirely, the tax burden will be shifted to businesses.
2. Pausing the Capital Gains Tax Expansion – The controversial proposal scheduled for April 16, 2024, has been put on hold but not scrapped entirely.
3. Economic Integration – Merging Canada’s 13 fragmented provincial economies into a more unified national system, aligning with the Conservative Party’s vision.
4. Trade Diversification – Prioritizing “values-based trade” with nations that align with Canada’s principles, a policy that resembles Conservative rhetoric.
5. Middle-Class Tax Cuts – Returning tariffs collected from trade disputes back to businesses and residents.
6. Boosting Housing Supply – Providing tax incentives for first-time homebuyers and accelerating housing projects.
7. Reducing Government Spending – A clear break from the Trudeau administration’s heavy spending policies.
8. Reviving the East-West Oil Pipeline – Reducing reliance on the U.S. for oil transportation and enhancing Canada’s domestic energy network.
9. Increasing Defense Spending – Meeting NATO’s 2% GDP military expenditure target by 2030, aligning with Trump’s demands.
10. Balancing the Federal Budget in Three Years – Committing to strict fiscal discipline.
11. Retaliatory Tariffs Against the U.S. – If the U.S. imposes tariffs on Canada, Carney proposes a tit-for-tat response.

Key Differences Between Carney and Trudeau

One of the most notable departures from the Trudeau era is government spending. In December 2023, the Trudeau administration announced a $42 billion deficit, with operating expenses accounting for $140 billion—27% of Canada’s total budget. By comparison, Canada’s entire pension payout is just $76 billion, meaning the government’s operational costs are nearly double the pension system’s expenditure.

To demonstrate fiscal responsibility, Carney has already cut the number of cabinet departments from 36 to 24, though it remains unclear whether this will result in actual job cuts.

2. The Opposition’s Concerns: Does Carney’s Plan Hold Up?

While Carney’s policies have been met with optimism by some, opposition parties and analysts have raised serious concerns about feasibility and execution.

A. Carbon Tax: A Clever Rebranding?

Carney’s biggest headline-grabbing move was “abolishing” the consumer carbon tax—but in reality, it’s merely been shifted to businesses. This mirrors the classic “shell game” approach: consumers may no longer see carbon tax line items on their bills, but businesses will inevitably pass the costs back to consumers through higher prices.

The Global Carbon Tax Landscape

• Out of 193 countries, only 25 have carbon taxes, and many impose symbolic rates of around $25 per ton (~$30 CAD).
• Canada’s current carbon tax is $65 per ton, set to rise to $170 per ton by 2030—a punitive rate that increases living costs and weakens business competitiveness.

During a May 8, 2024, Senate hearing, Carney personally defended carbon taxes, stating they were effective and should remain in place unless a better alternative was found. This suggests his commitment to environmental taxation remains unchanged.

B. Defense Spending vs. Budget Balancing: A Contradiction?

Carney promises to lower taxes, boost defense spending, and balance the budget—but how realistic is that?

• Canada’s military budget must increase significantly to meet NATO’s 2% GDP target by 2030.
• Simultaneously, Carney aims to cut government expenditures while maintaining social programs.
• Without drastic spending cuts, these goals appear contradictory, raising concerns about hidden tax hikes in other areas.

C. Trade Protectionism: A Risky Strategy?

Carney proposes “values-based trade”, meaning Canada will prioritize trade with nations that align with its ideological principles.

• This echoes Conservative rhetoric but could limit Canada’s economic flexibility.
• If tariffs against countries like China increase, it will raise import costs, further fueling inflation.
• Carney has also hinted at using environmental regulations to impose new trade barriers, essentially applying a carbon tariff on imports.

D. The Housing Market: Who Benefits?

Carney’s housing policy remains largely aligned with Trudeau’s approach, focusing on:

• Subsidized rental units rather than market-rate housing.
• Affordable housing programs that prioritize government-controlled developments.
• Incentives for rental projects instead of homeownership expansion.

This policy may keep rental costs stable but does little to increase homeownership opportunities. By contrast, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has proposed a pro-market strategy that would encourage private developers to build more for-sale homes.

3. What’s Missing? The Gaps in Carney’s Plan

A comparison of Carney’s policies and Conservative proposals highlights three major gaps in the Liberal approach:

1. Crime & Public Safety – Carney has not addressed the rising crime rates linked to soft-on-crime policies. The Conservative platform calls for repealing lenient criminal laws (C-5, C-75, C-83) and ending bail loopholes for repeat offenders.
2. Drug Policy – While Carney remains silent on drug laws, Conservatives advocate for stricter border control and harsher penalties on drug trafficking.
3. Arctic Sovereignty – Under Harper’s government, Canada maintained a strong Arctic military presence, but Trudeau largely ignored it. Conservatives argue that securing the Arctic is critical for both Canada and U.S. security interests.

4. Will Carney’s Leadership Bring Canada Back on Track?

The answer appears to be no—at least not in a way that drastically alters Canada’s economic trajectory.

• His policies retain Trudeau’s core ideology: prioritizing climate action, social spending, and government intervention over market-driven solutions.
• While he has acknowledged government bloat, his tax-and-spend approach remains largely unchanged.
• The housing strategy favors rental construction over homeownership, limiting supply-side solutions.
• His trade and environmental policies risk further economic inefficiencies, potentially worsening Canada’s productivity crisis.

A Canada Looking for Its Own Trump?

With Carney leading the Liberals, Canada’s political landscape increasingly mirrors the U.S. under Biden-Harris. Meanwhile, Poilievre’s pro-market stance is gaining traction, leading some to wonder: Will Canada produce its own version of Trump?

Ultimately, the upcoming election will determine whether Canadians opt for Carney’s interventionist policies or Poilievre’s market-driven approach—a choice that will shape Canada’s economic and real estate future.