This past Tuesday’s market action—while not particularly dramatic—did offer one key piece of insight hidden beneath the surface. While asset prices stayed relatively steady, a new batch of ISM (Institute for Supply Management) survey data revealed something far more telling: corporate sentiment is deteriorating, and it could be the canary in the coal mine for what’s next in the economy.

1. ISM Survey: The Pulse Check That Matters

While traditional macro indicators like GDP or inflation data offer backward-looking snapshots, the ISM survey gives us something more timely—a real-time read on business sentiment. This week’s ISM responses revealed a troubling pattern: tariffs are beginning to squeeze American businesses, and their reactions suggest the pain is spreading across industries.

Let’s look at some examples from the ISM survey:

• Chemical Products: Businesses are dialing back on 2025 demand expectations due to growing recession fears.

• Transportation Equipment: Companies are reporting visible slowdowns in medium-to-long-term demand because of government policy shifts.

• Food, Beverage & Tobacco: Sales are declining in Canada due to consumer backlash against U.S. products, a sign of international economic frictions.

• Machinery: Business sentiment is “deteriorating at a fast pace.”

• Electronics: One of the few stable segments, though even here, firms are actively strategizing how to cope with tariff-related cost pressures.

Across the board, companies are either already impacted by tariffs or are preparing for what’s coming. While we haven’t yet seen mass layoffs, sentiment is shifting—and that usually precedes harder data like employment reports or GDP revisions.

2. High-Yield Credit Spreads: The Quiet Alarm

Another underappreciated signal? High-yield bond spreads. Year-to-date, the spread between junk bonds and Treasurys has widened by 58 basis points.

Why does that matter?

Because history shows that when high-yield spreads rise, equity markets typically fall. It’s a classic risk-off signal. Going back over 20 years, every sustained rise in junk spreads was accompanied by stock market weakness. Conversely, tightening spreads have supported bull runs.

Right now, the spread has ticked higher—but it’s not yet a full-blown alarm bell. However, if corporate earnings continue to weaken, especially due to higher input costs and lower consumer demand, we could see a more pronounced market correction.

3. Corporate Behavior Is Leading the Data

The companies responding to ISM aren’t just guessing—they’re living the reality before it shows up in macro stats.

They’re adjusting hiring, slowing capital expenditures, and managing margins. One food and beverage company has already seen its Canadian sales fall because of political backlash. A machinery firm is watching sentiment nosedive. Another industrial supplier suspects customers are front-loading orders out of fear future costs will rise.

These are early-stage recession behaviors. What we’re seeing now is margin pressure. What comes next could be job cuts, and after that—broad-based economic contraction.

4. Consumption Risks from the Top 10%

Don’t forget: in the U.S., nearly 50% of consumer spending comes from the top 10% of earners. With equity markets correcting and wealth effects fading, high-income consumers are also starting to pull back.

The ripple effects of that—combined with layoffs that may come if margins continue to get squeezed—could tip the scale toward a broader recession.

ISM survey data, paired with weak labor market indicators like falling quit and hiring rates, suggest the U.S. economy is in the prelude phase of a recession. Businesses are holding on to employees for now, but that won’t last forever.

5. GDP Estimates Drop—But the Market Is Already Ahead

Following the ISM data, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker slashed Q1 growth projections from –2.8% to –3.7%. Even excluding volatile components, the estimate sits at –1.4%.

But let’s be clear: by the time GDP data confirms the slowdown, markets will have already priced it in. That’s why the recent equity market correction is not only unsurprising—it’s justified.

6. The Current Bull Market May Be Over

Historical data shows bull markets tend to last between 444 and 686 trading days. The most recent one, from late 2022 to early 2024, clocked in at 657 days. Now, with risk sentiment deteriorating, junk bond spreads widening, and corporate earnings under pressure, there’s a strong case to be made that we’ve entered a correction phase.

The good news? Historically, corrections last 3–10 months. And based on the current timeline, we may already be 1–2 months in.

Conclusion: Recession Is No Longer a Tail Risk

The tone from Tuesday’s data is clear: corporate America is preparing for tougher times. Tariffs are accelerating that reality. Markets have begun adjusting. The high-yield bond market is sending subtle warnings. ISM feedback shows that companies are already feeling the pain.

Investors should stop asking if a slowdown is coming. The real question is: how deep, and how long?

For now, the prudent move is to prepare—not panic.